The defense/special teams spot may not seem like very important in DFS, but as we saw last week when the Arizona Cardinals put up a jaw-dropping 33 fantasy points (the most from any team all season) in a stunning 38-8 blowout win over Green Bay, the right D/ST play can mean the difference between winning hundreds of dollars and hundreds of thousands of dollars in large tournaments. I already tweeted out my rankings Friday afternoon, but in-depth analysis and research is necessary to taking down tournaments.
1.Denver Broncos (vs. Chargers): The Broncos cap off the season at home against a sputtering offense that’s been ravaged by injuries all season. The Chargers were held to just three points in their Week 13 loss to Denver and the Broncos D/ST scored a season-high 23 fantasy points in that game.
The Chargers have also already won their Super Bowl when they defeated the Dolphins 30-14 in their final game at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 20. If you’re going to play anyone from San Diego’s side this week, it should either be tight end Antonio Gates, running back Danny Woodhead or retiring deep threat WR Malcolm Floyd in the final game of his 12-year NFL career with the Chargers. But they’re all extremely risky dart-throws, at best.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Raiders): Many considered KC’s D/ST the top play last week, and for good reason. They were facing a struggling Browns offense and had averaged 15.25 fantasy points over their previous eight games (21 at BAL; 14 vs. SD; 17 at OAK; 5 vs. BUF; 20 at SD; 19 at DEN; 14 vs. DET; 12 vs. PIT).
The Chiefs were ultimately limited to a disappointing (albeit decent) eight point output against Cleveland, but have a chance to feast against Derek Carr, who threw three fourth-quarter interceptions within a nine minute span in their first meeting back in Week 13. Kansas City converted each of the first two picks into touchdown passes to Jeremy Maclin within two plays of each of those drives. The third interception was a pick-six by ex-Raider Tyvon Branch.
Oakland doesn’t seem to have anything to play for, but every team wants to end its season on a high note with a win against a division rival, and this is the final game of Charles Woodson’s illustrious 18-year Hall of Fame career. The Chiefs have locked up a playoff spot, but can clinch the AFC West with a win over Oakland and a Broncos loss against San Diego, though that seems very unlikely.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (at Browns): One of my most popular D/ST plays of the week, the Steelers should be extremely motivated to bounce back from their devastating loss in Baltimore that might have ultimately ended their playoff aspirations and a possible Super Bowl run. They still have a chance — they’ll need to beat the Browns and hope the Bills upset the Jets, and they’ll likely face the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
While Browns breakout receiver Travis Benjamin and tight end Gary Barnidge are viable tournament options (in part because of their garbage time upside) against a suspect Steelers secondary, Pittsburgh’s likely to dominate this game and get after turnover-prone Browns third-string quarterback Austin Davis.
4. Houston Texans (vs. Jaguars): Houston’s defense has been playing lights out ever since its bye week, and they’ve scored 33 fantasy points over their last two games. While planets would have to align for Indianapolis to win the division over Houston, the Texans aren’t going to rest their starters and take their chances. They want to finish with the season on a high note with a win (and a winning record) at home against their division rival and should be ready to roll against a young and emerging (albeit turnover-prone) Jaguars offense.
When these two teams clashed back in Week 6, the Texans D/ST amassed 16 fantasy points, along with three interceptions in a 31-20 victory. Look for a pretty similar outcome this Sunday.
5. Minnesota Vikings (at Packers): The Vikings are really starting to hit their stride down the stretch on both sides of the ball and have made it clear they’re tired of watching the Packers win the division. Both teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs, but don’t expect either team to rest its starters as the winner of this pivotal divisional battle on Sunday Night Football will take home the NFC North crown and secure the NFC’s No. 3 seed.
With star defensive tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith all back healthy, the Vikings’ defense has a chance to feast against a sputtering Packers offense and injury-plagued offensive line that allowed Aaron Rodgers to suffer a whopping eight sacks and 13 hits in last week’s stunning 38-8 defeat at Arizona.
The Cardinals D/ST cost just $3,300 at DraftKings last week, and they put up a jaw-dropping 33 fantasy points, the most from any team all season. Don’t expect the Vikings D/ST to surpass that mark, but they have racked up nine sacks and 27 fantasy points over their last two games.
The Vikings D/ST is a better play at DraftKings than FanDuel because of the price differential.
At FanDuel, Minnesota costs you $4,500, which makes them a nice cap-saving bargain, but they’re not that much cheaper than the Texans ($4,800) and Steelers ($4,900).
At DraftKings, they’re incredibly just $2,200 ($200 above the minimum salary at the D/ST position), which is over $1,000 cheaper than the Texans ($3,300) and Steelers ($3,500) at DK. So they might be my highest-owned D/ST play at DK, but I’ll have more of the Texans and Steelers at FD.
Here’s the playoff implications for the Vikings-Packers game:
- If the Packers win and the Seahawks knock off Arizona, Green Bay will host Seattle in the Wild Card round.
- If the Packers win and Arizona beats the Seahawks, Green Bay will host the Vikings again next week.
- If the Vikings beat the Packers, Green Bay will head to D.C. to battle the Redskins and Minnesota will host Seattle in a rematch (the Seahawks thrashed the Vikings 38-7 in Week 13), regardless of what happens in Arizona Sunday afternoon.
- Note Carolina and Arizona have both clinched first-round byes and Washington’s locked up the NFC’s fourth seed. The Seahawks will stay in the sixth spot unless they beat Arizona and Green Bay beats Minnesota, which would cause the Seahawks to jump to fifth thanks to the aforementioned head-to-head win over Minnesota.
6. Carolina Panthers (vs. Buccaneers): Their quest for a historic undefeated and unprecedented 19-0 season came to an end in last week’s stunning 20-13 loss to the Falcons. But they still want to end the season on a high note and undoubtedly want to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win over Tampa Bay.
The Panthers D/ST put up 18 fantasy points when they battled the Bucs on the road back in Week 4, thanks to four INTs from rookie QB Jameis Winston, who has only tossed six picks in the 11 games since.
Carolina’s still a really viable option at home, in part because Mike Evans is likely to be shadowed by Panthers star corner Josh Norman and Vincent Jackson’s done for the season, leaving tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and running back Charles Sims as his best pass-catchers for this game.
7. New England Patriots (at Dolphins): Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker are on my radar this week, but the Patriots should dominate this divisional battle with the AFC’s No. 1 seed up for grabs.
The Patriots amassed 15 fantasy points (tying their second-highest total of the season) when these two teams clashed back in Week 8, and could surpass that mark this week, though there’s a chance Bill Belichick rests some of his starters in the second half if they mount a big lead, which they should, thanks to a strong pass rush and secondary that’s really hitting its stride, and an offense that should feast against a struggling Dolphins defense.
8. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seahawks): The high-flying Cardinals cap off the season with a battle against division rival Seattle and a chance to clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed (if Tampa Bay’s able to beat Carolina).
While there’s been a bit of speculation that Pete Carroll could rest some of his starters with little on the line for the Seahawks (they’ve secured a playoff spot and the highest they can move up to is the fifth seed, and that’s if they beat Arizona and Green Bay beats Minnesota).
But it seems just as likely that the Seahawks bring their A-game in a playoff-like atmosphere and try to head into a potential Super Bowl run with momentum off a statement win against arguably the best team in the NFL. Seattle also has the pieces in place to turn this game into a shootout, if Russell Wilson gets adequate protection.
9. Detroit Lions (at Bears): With only 16 fantasy points over its last four games, Detroit is one of the riskier plays on this list. The Lions also only managed two points when they hosted the Bears in a wild Week 6 shootout, but Chicago has since lost Alshon Jeffery (hamstring/I.R.) and Martellus Bennett (ribs/I.R.), both of whom seem likely to find new homes in the offseason.
And Jay Cutler could be without his top three remaining targets — running back Matt Forte (questionable with a back injury), tight end Zach Miller (questionable with a toe injury) and Eddie Royal (doubtful with an illness). If that happens, Cutler will be left with a receiving corps led by RB Jeremy Langford (22 catches for 279 yards and a TD on the season), Marc Mariani (16-220-0), Josh Bellamy (16-175-1) and Cameron Meredith (9-101-0).
10. St. Louis Rams (at 49ers): The Rams D/ST just put up 17 points in a stunning upset win at Seattle and amassed eight points at home against San Francisco back in Week 8. This could be a big spot for Todd Gurley and St. Louis’ defense, but the 49ers have performed significantly better at home this season, primarily on defense.
11. New York Jets (at Bills): Gang Green boasts the league’s top run defense and LeSean McCoy remains sidelined. Robert Woods and Charles Clay are also out with injuries, leaving Sammy Watkins (who’s likely to be shadowed by Darrelle Revis) and rookie RBs Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee as Tyrod Taylor’s top offensive weapons. It looks like Watkins is the only option from Buffalo’s offense, and he’s a very risky GPP-only play.
12. Buffalo Bills (vs. Jets): It might be really tough to trust a Bills defense that’s struggled down the stretch and faces a prolific high-flying Jets offense that will secure a playoff spot with a win on Sunday. But Buffalo wants to cap off the season on a high note in front of the home crowd and end the Jets’ playoff chances.
In fact, the Bills view this game as their Super Bowl, and they clearly have the talent to generate multiple turnovers and turn them into touchdowns. They’re a risky GPP-only play, but one that could help you win a large tournament. The Bills D/ST scored 16 points against the Jets back in Week 10.
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